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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still