Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
