A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
